This role is for one of our clients
A leading AI research group is seeking top-tier superforecasters to support a high-impact initiative aimed at strengthening AI systems' long-range prediction and reasoning abilities. The role involves generating calibrated, data-driven forecasts across domains such as geopolitics, global markets, macroeconomics, and emerging world events. Ideal for professionals affiliated with respected forecasting communities and with a proven track record of high-accuracy predictions.
Requirements
Key Responsibilities
- Produce well-reasoned, probability-based forecasts on complex global questions
- Clearly document thought process, assumptions, data sources, and methodologies
- Engage in peer review and collaborative refinement of forecasts
- Provide input on prompt design, scoring systems, and question resolution criteria
- Assist in benchmarking and evaluating AI-generated forecasts against expert human performance
Ideal Qualifications
- Affiliation with a recognized forecasting program (e.g., Good Judgment Project, Swift Centre, Rand Forecasting Initiative, International Institute of Forecasters)
- Proven forecasting accuracy and calibration over multiple years
- Experience participating in competitive or public forecasting tournaments
- Strong analytical, probabilistic reasoning, and written communication skills
- Ability to work independently in a structured, asynchronous environment
Project Details
- Fully remote and asynchronous — choose your own working hours
- Expected commitment: 10–20 hours per week
Compensation & Terms
- Compensation range: $140–245 per hour (U.S.-based candidates)
- Engagement classified as independent contractor
